The Invent Blog
Patent Pending
Patently Obvious Blog
Found from: Business-Opportunities
An inventor's statistical chance of success.
Source: http://patentpending.blogs.com/patent_pending_blog/2005/01/an_inventors_ch.html
Sometimes an inventor asks about their chance of success. If they are using
an invention promotion company, I would say their chance of success would be
better if they bought lottery tickets. However, we have noticed some statistics
that are useful in this evaluation.
Our usual practice is to do a patent search, then file a patent application.
Then in the years that follow, we help the inventor get trademarks, negotiate
license agreements, and possibly file followup patent applications. Over a
period of time, we have observed some general statistics, which of course do not
take into account if the product is a good idea, if the invention is at the
right time, if it can be built for a price to make its sale price attractive, if
the inventor is competent to get it to market, design it, hire the right people
at the right time, etc. Just looking at numbers, here are the numbers:
100. Of every 100 inventions we do patent searches on, about 60 percent of
them turn out to have patentable subject matter.
50. Of those 60 searches, about 50 of them go ahead with a patent
application.
45. Of those 50 applications, about 45 of them result in issued patents.
25. Of those 45 issued patents, about 25 inventors do nothing with the
invention, or are not successful. They may run out of energy, inspiration,
time, dedication, or they may make dumb mistakes about marketing, packaging,
designing, unable to find a licensee, or run out of money.
20. Out of the 45 issued patents, about 20 inventors do some kind of test
marketing.
5. Of the 20 that do test marketing, about 5 will fail. The item may not
sell for the price they have to get in order to make a profit, or people may not
be interested in the product.
15. Of the 20 that do test marketing, about 15 are at least marginally
successful.
10. Of the 15 that experience marginal success, about 10 will quit for lack
of interest, resources, dedication, inspiration, changes in circumstance. Some
of these could have been saved if the inventors could learn from purchasers what
they really want in this kind of product, and if the inventor can change his
product. Most inventors don't realize how long it takes to make a product a
success, and don't have the stamina to follow it through.
3 and 2. Of the 5 that are left of the 20 who did test marketing, about 3
will grow into successful single product businesses, and 2 will license their
product to a larger company.
